Archive for the ‘WeatherUnderground’ Tag

PUERTO RICO REPORTS – MORE FLOODING, LANDSLIDES – TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO HEAD NORTHWARD

“Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here.”

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POST

FROM SEPTEMBER 22, 2008

Dr. Jeff Masters of http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ reports flash floods and mudslides in Puerto Rico from the tropical disturbance in their vicinity.  Please check it out.  His weather blog is excellent.  You will find it on the right side of the page.

The models are all over the place today.  The GDFL model has been, in my opinion, the best performer over the last couple of years at least.  Please disregard the CLP5 model and the XTRP model.  They are no-skill models that do have a useful purpose but they are not meant to convey an actual forecast.  One day I may write about those models to explain their function but if you are bugged by it and can’t wait, I suggest a Google search.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorial items scattered about and more will be added in time.  At the end of this page there is a cue to click to the previous page or the next page.

I LIKE IKE! (the President – Not the Storm!)

If I had been old enough to vote for Ike in 1953, I would have.  But I’m not thrilled with the “Ike” out there in the Atlantic today.  I have a very uncomfortable feeling about him.  Furthermore, it probably won’t be long before Josephine is on his tail.

Dr. Jeff Masters of WeatherUnderground.com in this afternoon’s discussion of tropical storm Ike does not envision it re-curving up the Atlantic during its approach on the Bahamas or Hispaniola.  However, he states that “our skill in predicting such things five days in advance is nil.”

None-the-less, at this moment – the longer range ECMWF has Ike in the Gulf of Mexico by Sept. 9. (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting).

If you are truly interested in concise and clear hurricane discussions I urge you to read Dr. Masters’ web-log at:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

His statements which are pretty much daily during busy times of the hurricane season, are archived at the site.  I have been following his work for quite some time and have grown to enjoy his insight.

According to Dr. Masters, the GFDL and HWRF “are the only models that incorporate detailed depictions of the thermal structure of the Gulf of Mexico into their runs.”

I have been especially impressed with the GFDL over the last two or three years, the dynamic model from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. In my opinion, it did a very good job on the recent elusive storm, Fay.  I’m not sure that it has been correct to call Fay erratic.  It seems to me that it was the forecast models that were erratic.  What a tough job it is to try to figure out where a storm is going to track when the steering forces are so very weak as they were with Fay!

The image below is another attempt of mine to splice two images with scales that don’t match perfectly.  It was done for your convenience.